Commodity: DDR2, 250GB 2.5", Video Card Redux
Just a few, commodity updates ...
Vista's Marketshare, or Lack Thereof, is Your Gain
Microsoft loves to quote Vista sales. What Microsoft doesn't tell you is that their numbers, just like in the past, are merely just the licenses to OEMs and boxes sent to resellers. They are not the actual consumer or resale sales, much less not even boxes shipped with Vista at OEMs. Reality: Vista sales projections are way off, way, way off, the mark. But what does this have to do with commodity PC hardware?
DDR2 memory overproduction, massive -- and I mean massive -- over-production! We're talking 20% operating losses for many memory vendors in Q1! Why? Supply is well over demand, as people aren't upgrading for Vista because -- again -- Vista is not actually selling well, and not leaving the PC OEM as much as the Microsoft "shipment" figures show.
Memory, largely DDR2 memory which was ramped up in production as existing and new 2006+ AMD and Intel system designs were targeted, has dropped to as low as 20% as before -- as much as an 80% drop over just 6 months ago when Vista hit. DDR has also dropped, although to a lesser extent. DDR2 should continue to drop, but only a little more, through Q3 before rising again as supplies are finally reduced and vendors aren't replenishing them. Some are even switching their lines to other, similar, simple cell semiconductor devices, such as EEPROM ("flash").
So now, or possibly within the next month after a few more, small dips, is the time to buy to get some of the best deals. A single 1GB DDR2 can be had for under $25 per DIMM (such as in a 2GB "kit" of 2x1GB DIMMs) after rebates, 2GB DDR2 for around $75+ per DIMM (such as in a 4GB "kit" of 2x2GB DIMMs) after rebates. SO-DIMM prices notebook DDR2 are similar, with maybe a 25-50% premium. There is plenty of marketing non-sense, with sticks rated beyond DDR2-667/PC2-5300 that require over-voltage (beyond JEDEC compliant 1.8V), so be sure to read the specifications. I covered much of this (along with other DDR/DDR2 considerations) in my earlier blog article, Spring 2007 PC Assembler's Quick Guide ...
Western Digital, Others, Release 250GB in 2.5"
For a good while now, the leading capacities in 2.5" disks were 200GB at 4200pm, 160GB at 5400rpm and 100GB in 7200rpm. There is always the "sweep density" in raw data transfer rates for single user usage versus "spindle and seek times" in general, as well as heavy multi-task I/O usage. The "sweet spot" for notebooks has typically been 5400rpm, as the added 40GB in 4200rpm wasn't enough to give the "sweep density" a boost over in 5400rpm's spindle/seek. At the same time, 100GB in 7200rpm was a good 60GB less, and really didn't pay much for its premium as the "sweep density" of 160GB in 5400rpm came out best in single user usage.
But now Western Digital has released its 250GB Scorpio 5400rpm drives below $200, and Seagate and other vendors have their new 5400rpm and 7200rpm products coming on-line. As such, 160GB has become very commodity around $100 -- just above $0.60/GB -- and even 250GB is almost worth their price at under $0.80/GB for leading capacity. There may also be some solid 7200rpm products in a 200GB shortly as well, possibly challenging 5400rpm for the mainstream. But for now, 160GB or 250GB (at the leading edge) 2.5" drives of 5400rpms are still the "best bang for the buck."
Video Card Redux: 6600GT/7600GS ($30/50), 7900GS ($100) and 8800GTS ($250)
Well, Computex has arrived, and there is absolutely no word on a possible nVidia G81 "7900" series or any offer of a follow-up AMD-ATI X600 offering beyond the initial 2900 product. As such, waiting for a G81 or other option is now very likely to be a 6+ month wait, if not longer. This definition changes my view of the high-end.
In my previous "Commodity" update, at $50 or under, I mentioned the nVidia NV43 w/128-bit GDDR3, the GeForce 6600GT, available for $30 after rebates. It's a great deal for the price. Likewise, when you find the nVidia G72 w/128-bit DDR2, the GeForce 7600GS, available for $50 (or less) after rebates, it too is still a great move for the price. Continue to avoid anything GeForce 6200, 7100 and 7300 since they are much slower with 64-bit memory, and often no cheaper (if not more in cost). Wait for the deal on various deal-sites for the 6600GT or 7600GS if you don't want to spend more, let alone understand the new GeForce 8500 with 128-bit DDR2 offers you nothing better (forget the DX10 marketing, as I mentioned before in comparison to the old Ti4 v. FX debate on the prior DX9).
Likewise, in the previous update, I mentioned the entry-level nVidia G71 w/256-bit GDDR3, the GeForce 7900GS. It is now finding itself regularly available for $100 after rebates, and even under $125 without a rebate. The GeForce 7900GS is definitely the "card for now" that gets within 25% of the top performance of any G71/7000 series, so don't look anywhere else. Although there has been a few deals on the 8600GTS/GT with 128-bit GDDR3 that brings them down to near or even slightly under $150 after rebate under, it's hard to best the price-performance of the 7900GS around $100. So if you want to spend only $100, the 7900GS is your baby, period. Continue to avoid GeForce 8600GT/GTS w/128-bit GDDR3 products at $200+, because you can do better, and don't bother paying anything close (let alone more) for the 7600GT w/128-bit GDDR3 which doesn't come close to the 7900GS w/256-bit GDDR3.
Again now given the fact that no G81 8900 series is to be even mentioned, the existing G80 GeForce 8800 series is still the king. The 8800GTS 320MB w/320-bit GDDR3 card has now hit as low as $230 after rebate, and $250 after rebate is becoming a regular deal every few weeks. So since the 8800GTS 320MB can be had for $250 after rebate, there is no reason to pay around $200 for a much, much slower and less capable 8600 w/128-bit GDDR3 series, period. Just don't let the sales and marketing fool you -- you either should save money now and spend only around $100 on a 7900GS w/256-bit GGDR3, or just go the 8800GTS w/320-bit GDDR3 route for $250 (or under) in its 320MB incarnation.
Wait for the deals in all cases ...
- $30 for 6600GT, or $50 for 7600GS (forget 6200, 7100 or 7300 -- and the 8500 is no better)
- Near $100 for 7900GS (forget 7600GT or 8600 series, let alone 8500)
- $250 (or even significantly under) for the 8800GTS 320MB
No reason to buy another nVidia option, period -- and don't even look to ATI if you run Linux (their drivers are still well beyond nVidia).
Now if you really want to spend over $300 for a GeForce 8800GTS 640MB or AMD-ATI Radeon X2900, or over $500 for a GeForce 8800GTX 768MB I won't stop you -- especially since the G81 GeForce 8900 was not even announced for future available at Computex. But I don't like spending that kind of money when the $250 (or less) 8800GTS 320MB gets you close enough at 1920x1200 or lower resolutions. If you're running at higher resolutions, then you probably have money to burn on a video card.
SLI Comment:
Vista's Marketshare, or Lack Thereof, is Your Gain
Microsoft loves to quote Vista sales. What Microsoft doesn't tell you is that their numbers, just like in the past, are merely just the licenses to OEMs and boxes sent to resellers. They are not the actual consumer or resale sales, much less not even boxes shipped with Vista at OEMs. Reality: Vista sales projections are way off, way, way off, the mark. But what does this have to do with commodity PC hardware?
DDR2 memory overproduction, massive -- and I mean massive -- over-production! We're talking 20% operating losses for many memory vendors in Q1! Why? Supply is well over demand, as people aren't upgrading for Vista because -- again -- Vista is not actually selling well, and not leaving the PC OEM as much as the Microsoft "shipment" figures show.
Memory, largely DDR2 memory which was ramped up in production as existing and new 2006+ AMD and Intel system designs were targeted, has dropped to as low as 20% as before -- as much as an 80% drop over just 6 months ago when Vista hit. DDR has also dropped, although to a lesser extent. DDR2 should continue to drop, but only a little more, through Q3 before rising again as supplies are finally reduced and vendors aren't replenishing them. Some are even switching their lines to other, similar, simple cell semiconductor devices, such as EEPROM ("flash").
So now, or possibly within the next month after a few more, small dips, is the time to buy to get some of the best deals. A single 1GB DDR2 can be had for under $25 per DIMM (such as in a 2GB "kit" of 2x1GB DIMMs) after rebates, 2GB DDR2 for around $75+ per DIMM (such as in a 4GB "kit" of 2x2GB DIMMs) after rebates. SO-DIMM prices notebook DDR2 are similar, with maybe a 25-50% premium. There is plenty of marketing non-sense, with sticks rated beyond DDR2-667/PC2-5300 that require over-voltage (beyond JEDEC compliant 1.8V), so be sure to read the specifications. I covered much of this (along with other DDR/DDR2 considerations) in my earlier blog article, Spring 2007 PC Assembler's Quick Guide ...
Western Digital, Others, Release 250GB in 2.5"
For a good while now, the leading capacities in 2.5" disks were 200GB at 4200pm, 160GB at 5400rpm and 100GB in 7200rpm. There is always the "sweep density" in raw data transfer rates for single user usage versus "spindle and seek times" in general, as well as heavy multi-task I/O usage. The "sweet spot" for notebooks has typically been 5400rpm, as the added 40GB in 4200rpm wasn't enough to give the "sweep density" a boost over in 5400rpm's spindle/seek. At the same time, 100GB in 7200rpm was a good 60GB less, and really didn't pay much for its premium as the "sweep density" of 160GB in 5400rpm came out best in single user usage.
But now Western Digital has released its 250GB Scorpio 5400rpm drives below $200, and Seagate and other vendors have their new 5400rpm and 7200rpm products coming on-line. As such, 160GB has become very commodity around $100 -- just above $0.60/GB -- and even 250GB is almost worth their price at under $0.80/GB for leading capacity. There may also be some solid 7200rpm products in a 200GB shortly as well, possibly challenging 5400rpm for the mainstream. But for now, 160GB or 250GB (at the leading edge) 2.5" drives of 5400rpms are still the "best bang for the buck."
Video Card Redux: 6600GT/7600GS ($30/50), 7900GS ($100) and 8800GTS ($250)
Well, Computex has arrived, and there is absolutely no word on a possible nVidia G81 "7900" series or any offer of a follow-up AMD-ATI X600 offering beyond the initial 2900 product. As such, waiting for a G81 or other option is now very likely to be a 6+ month wait, if not longer. This definition changes my view of the high-end.
In my previous "Commodity" update, at $50 or under, I mentioned the nVidia NV43 w/128-bit GDDR3, the GeForce 6600GT, available for $30 after rebates. It's a great deal for the price. Likewise, when you find the nVidia G72 w/128-bit DDR2, the GeForce 7600GS, available for $50 (or less) after rebates, it too is still a great move for the price. Continue to avoid anything GeForce 6200, 7100 and 7300 since they are much slower with 64-bit memory, and often no cheaper (if not more in cost). Wait for the deal on various deal-sites for the 6600GT or 7600GS if you don't want to spend more, let alone understand the new GeForce 8500 with 128-bit DDR2 offers you nothing better (forget the DX10 marketing, as I mentioned before in comparison to the old Ti4 v. FX debate on the prior DX9).
Likewise, in the previous update, I mentioned the entry-level nVidia G71 w/256-bit GDDR3, the GeForce 7900GS. It is now finding itself regularly available for $100 after rebates, and even under $125 without a rebate. The GeForce 7900GS is definitely the "card for now" that gets within 25% of the top performance of any G71/7000 series, so don't look anywhere else. Although there has been a few deals on the 8600GTS/GT with 128-bit GDDR3 that brings them down to near or even slightly under $150 after rebate under, it's hard to best the price-performance of the 7900GS around $100. So if you want to spend only $100, the 7900GS is your baby, period. Continue to avoid GeForce 8600GT/GTS w/128-bit GDDR3 products at $200+, because you can do better, and don't bother paying anything close (let alone more) for the 7600GT w/128-bit GDDR3 which doesn't come close to the 7900GS w/256-bit GDDR3.
Again now given the fact that no G81 8900 series is to be even mentioned, the existing G80 GeForce 8800 series is still the king. The 8800GTS 320MB w/320-bit GDDR3 card has now hit as low as $230 after rebate, and $250 after rebate is becoming a regular deal every few weeks. So since the 8800GTS 320MB can be had for $250 after rebate, there is no reason to pay around $200 for a much, much slower and less capable 8600 w/128-bit GDDR3 series, period. Just don't let the sales and marketing fool you -- you either should save money now and spend only around $100 on a 7900GS w/256-bit GGDR3, or just go the 8800GTS w/320-bit GDDR3 route for $250 (or under) in its 320MB incarnation.
Wait for the deals in all cases ...
- $30 for 6600GT, or $50 for 7600GS (forget 6200, 7100 or 7300 -- and the 8500 is no better)
- Near $100 for 7900GS (forget 7600GT or 8600 series, let alone 8500)
- $250 (or even significantly under) for the 8800GTS 320MB
No reason to buy another nVidia option, period -- and don't even look to ATI if you run Linux (their drivers are still well beyond nVidia).
Now if you really want to spend over $300 for a GeForce 8800GTS 640MB or AMD-ATI Radeon X2900, or over $500 for a GeForce 8800GTX 768MB I won't stop you -- especially since the G81 GeForce 8900 was not even announced for future available at Computex. But I don't like spending that kind of money when the $250 (or less) 8800GTS 320MB gets you close enough at 1920x1200 or lower resolutions. If you're running at higher resolutions, then you probably have money to burn on a video card.
SLI Comment:
- The 8800GTS 320MB is a much better option than two (2) 7900GS 256MB cards, despite the added $50 (assume you already have a SLI mainboard)
- The 7900GS 256MB is a much better option than two (2) 7600GS 256MB cards
- The 7300GT is a joke (even dual-256MB) in SLI, just get a 6600GT 128MB (yes, even though it only has 128MB) or 7600GS 256MB instead
4 comments:
Yeah, I just bought 2 gigs of DDR2 for the price of 1 gig of DDR. And this wasn't the cheap crap either, heat spreaders included. And higher speed than I needed.
Just remember that the synchronous clock is not always a good indicator of performance.
See my March post for more on that:
Spring 2007 PC Assemblers Quick Guide:
http://thebs413.blogspot.com/2007/03/spring-2007-pc-assemblers-quick-guide.html
The SPD chip on each DIMM reports to the channel its various CAS, RAD, RP and RAS timings for the synchronous clock rate. For any DIMM product, you will typically see four (4) timings like 2.5-3-3-6 DDR400/PC-3200 or 5-5-5-15 on DDR2-800/PC2-6400 SDRAM modules (which are pretty good timings). Taking in the synchronous timing, you can figure out the CAS, RAD, RP and RAS of the SDRAM module. If you're intersted more on each definition, see the Wikipedia page (I will not go into them here).
A RAS of 6 on DDR400/PC-3200 means 6 cycles at 200MHz DDR = 6 * 5ns = 30ns (33.3MHz equivalent) maximum delay to access a select row of data in a DRAM IC.
A RAS of 15 on DDR2-800/PC2-6400 means 15 cycles at 400MHz DDR = 15 * 2.5ns = 37.5ns (26.6MHz equivalent) maximum delay to access a select row of data in a DRAM IC.
A RAS of 15 on DDR2-667/PC2-5300 means 15 cycles at 333MHz DDR = 15 * 3ns = 45ns (22.2MHz equivalent) maximum delay to access a select row of data in a DRAM IC.
Also know that many DDR2 modules rated higher than DDR2-667/PC2-5300 require you to over-volt to get that performance. I.e., they won't work at those speeds or quoted timings if you use the stock JEDEC specified 1.8V. You typically need a solid mainboard to over-volt. Furthermore, some DDR2 modules do not work with some mainboards that cannot over-volt.
Just FYI.
BTW, I assume you do know that DDR2 is not compatible in DDR systems. ;)
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